Determinants of ICT Industry Development: Evidence from Provincial Panel Data in China (2001–2023)

Abstract

According to the balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China between 2001 and 2023, this paper empirically examines the key factors associated with information and communication technology (ICT) industry development. The results of multiple panel regressions indicate that regional economic development is the most consistent factor associated with ICT development across model specifications, which is consistently significant across all model specifications. Investment in technology has a high degree of model dependence as well as conditional heterogeneity and it is dependent on the presence of supportive regional institutions and complementary resources. On the contrary, policy-based measures do not have a uniform effect on the development of ICT in regions. This paper contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, it moves beyond conventional single-model analysis by employing a multi-model panel framework to systematically assess the robustness and model dependence of key determinants. Second, it explicitly examines the conditional and heterogeneous effects of technological investment, highlighting its reliance on complementary institutional and resource conditions. Third, it provides additional empirical evidence on the limited short-term associations of policy variables with ICT development, emphasizing the distinction between policy quantity and policy quality. These contributions offer a more nuanced understanding of ICT development dynamics across Chinese provinces.