A Study on Human Extinction Caused by Technology and the Path to Self-Salvation

Abstract

Science and technology are a double-edged sword. They can benefit humanity, yet they can also destroy it. The stronger their capacity to benefit humanity, the greater their power to destroy it. Since the Industrial Revolution in the mid-eighteenth century, science and technology have developed exponentially, yet humanity’s rational attitude toward science and technology has remained in a primitive state. I term this phenomenon evolutionary imbalance. Today, high-risk technologies have pushed humanity to the dangerous brink of self-extinction.

Since entering university in 1979, the author have been engaged in systematic research on technological risks for nearly half a century. Several major conclusions and a series of minor ones have emerged from this research. This article elaborates on only two of the important conclusions: first, “the continued development of science and technology will certainly soon lead to the extinction of humanity—at most within two or three hundred years, and at the earliest within this century”; second, “to save humanity from extinction, it is necessary to realize the Great Unification of humanity and strictly control science and technology.”

In 2007, my 800,000-character systematic research monograph Saving Humanity was published. In that book, my research conclusion was that the emergence of extinction-level means would not take more than 200 years, and that the eruption of extinction forces would not exceed 300 years thereafter. At the same time, I repeatedly emphasized that this was an extremely conservative estimate and that the reality is far more severe. Therefore, my conclusion was that “if science and technology continue to develop as they do today, they will certainly lead to the extinction of humanity—at most within four or five hundred years, and at the earliest within one hundred years,” and I made it clear that “this is a definitive conclusion, not merely a possibility.” (Hu, 2007a)

As early as January 2007, when Saving Humanity was still in proof, I sent it, together with The Open Letter to 26 Leaders of Mankind, to 25 leaders of major powers as well as the Secretary-General of the United Nations, in order to present this research conclusion and convey the gravity of the issue. Today, less than twenty years later, the development of science and technology has proven even faster than I imagined at the time. In fact, not long afterward, in the second edition of Saving Humanity, I revised the time-frame for the extinction of humanity by science and technology to “at most within two or three hundred years, and at the earliest within this century.” (Hu, 2019) Although “this century” also falls within “a hundred years,” this phrasing conveys a stronger sense of urgency. So, if this research conclusion is valid, what issue today could be more urgent and more important than solving this one? (Hu, 2025)

Over the years, I have devoted myself to using various methods to make people take this issue seriously, but with little effect. This paper presents the method of argumentation behind this conclusion, as well as the solution and pathway for addressing this urgent problem. The former is presented in two parts. The first part, “The Argument That the Continued Development of Science and Technology Will Certainly Lead to the Extinction of Humanity,” adopts the method of “Extinction Path Analysis + Defense Limit Testing.” The foundation of this analysis rests on five axioms, which can also be regarded as common sense—since axioms are inherently infallible, and common sense is naturally easy to understand. The reasoning process proceeds step by step through five key dimensions, demonstrating the inevitable connection between the continued development of science and technology and human extinction. The second part, “A Time Assessment of the Extinction of Humanity by Science and Technology,” is a comprehensive analysis based on the general laws of technological development along the timeline, combined with the current state of development of today’s frontier technologies. The latter is addressed in the third part, “The Solution and Realization Pathway for the Overall Survival Crisis of Humanity.”

All of these ideas were already present in Saving Humanity nearly twenty years ago. This paper revisits them today, incorporates new developments in science and technology from recent years, and draws on the research achievements of relevant scholars. Its purpose is to provide theoretical support and a practical warning for humanity to face technological risks squarely and adopt urgent countermeasures. (Hu, 2018)